Predicting Elections

Last spring, I posted a few implied probabilities for party presidential nominees. Obviously things have changed in the ensuing 14 months, so I figured I should update the table, and also link to a summary of a paper describing an entirely different, yet strangely accurate, method for predicting election winners.

Major differences from last year include the disappearance of Mark Warner and George Allen, and the appearance of Barack Obama and Fred Thompson.
( Table behind cut )