OK, this is homework.
Suppose yourself to be participating in the following bizarre contest. You have a choice of three doors. Behind one door is a costly automobile, behind the other two doors are cheap goats. You choose the first door, whereupon the master of ceremonies opens the third door to reveal a goat; he then offers you the opportunity to change your choice of door. Can you calculate the probability that the car lies behind the second door?
Suppose yourself to be participating in the following bizarre contest. You have a choice of three doors. Behind one door is a costly automobile, behind the other two doors are cheap goats. You choose the first door, whereupon the master of ceremonies opens the third door to reveal a goat; he then offers you the opportunity to change your choice of door. Can you calculate the probability that the car lies behind the second door?